Championship Series Predictions

An exciting round of division series has dwindled the field of remaining teams vying for a world championship down to four. The storylines for these final four teams run deep, but the most inspiring has to be that of the worst-to-first Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays handled the Chicago White Sox relatively easily and appeared to clearly be the better team. The question for the Rays is no longer how long can they keep up this pace, but how good can they really be? Their defense is second to none, and with a very good pitching staff to go along with a promising and athletic lineup, this team has to be considered a legitimate threat to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. The Red Sox squeaked out a series against the Los Angeles Angels which was much closer than it might appear on the surface. The Angels had ample opportunities to take control of the series, but kept tripping over their own feet. Their famed failed suicide squeeze attempt in the ninth inning of Game 4 will live in infamy for years to come. On the other hand, the Red Sox biggest asset is that they are a playoff-tested team that does not create any self-inflicted wounds. That, and the emergence of Jon Lester, who has been doing his best Josh Beckett impersonation.
In the National League the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the hottest team in baseball. They dismantled the Chicago Cubs, who were expected to be the darlings of this year's playoff season. While the Cubs' pitching fell short of the standards they had set over the course of the regular season, the Dodgers' pitching staff appears to be hitting their stride. Their bullpen is vastly underrated and their manager Joe Torre has been pushing all the right buttons. Oh, and Manny Ramirez hit .500 in the division series. Their NLCS opponents are the Philadelphia Phillies, who are playing with the weight of a city who has not seen a championship in any professional sport in a quarter of a century on their shoulders. The Fightin' Phils got excellent starting pitching in their division series against the Milwaukee Brewers, who seemed happy to simply be in the postseason. Cole Hamels is basking in the national spotlight and will be a key against the Dodgers, who do not have a starting pitcher to match him when he's on his game.
Now that we are done with the short five game series of the opening round, these teams will surely find that winning four is much tougher than winning three. We are now guaranteed to see a team in the World Series that has not been in well over a decade, at least. Tampa had never even seen a playoff series before last week. The Red Sox have to be viewed as the favorites, because they are the only team that has proven anything in the past, as defending champs. But the Rays have been defying the odds all year, and might be too naive to let the experience of Boston effect them. Don't expect to see a sweep in either series, and be prepared for some surprises. Here's my brusque attempt to breakdown how I think each might play out:

• Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays-

These two teams played each other tough all year, and for those that remember, were involved in a bench clearing brawl back on June 5th. The Rays won the season series, 10-8, but the home teams dominated. I expect that trend to remain the same in this series. The Rays had the best home record in baseball this year, largely due to the fact that the turf at Tropicana Field allows the Rays to showcase their team speed. For the Red Sox, Fenway Park has always been one of the toughest places in baseball to play, especially in the playoffs. But this series will ultimately come down to pitching. While the Rays bullpen was great against the White Sox, none of their starters really stepped up as the team's clear ace. For the Red Sox, that distinction belonged to Lester. He was dominate against a very good Angels lineup and did not allow an earned run in 14 innings pitched. His velocity seemed to increase as the game went on, and he was deadly on lefties. If Lester continues to rise to the occasion, the Rays will have a difficult time winning when he starts. With him lined up for Games 3 and 7, Tampa would be in trouble if the series goes the distance. The key though for Boston will be Beckett. He is one of the most dominating postseason pitchers in the league (if not the most dominating), but did not appear to be himself when he allowed four earned runs in only five innings pitched in Game 3 against the Angels. He is clearly not 100 percent, but still possesses the ability to alter a series in favor of Boston. If he regains his form, consider the Red Sox the American League Champions. For Tampa, it will be crucial for a starter to step up and match Boston's big guns. Their first three starters, James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, all have the potential to do so, but must find a way to elevate their games. Kazmir will be a particularly interesting player to watch, because he is matched up with Beckett in Games 2 and 6. Kazmir has nasty stuff, and talent-wise is probably the Rays best pitcher. But he got lit up in his last outing against Boston, when he surrendered nine earned runs in three innings pitched on September 15th.
The really surprising aspect of the Rays all year has been their bullpen. Last year it was horrendous, but they have made a drastic turnaround. They are deep, and led by lefty J.P. Howell, who has proven he can get guys out on both sides of the plate, and flame-thrower Grant Balfour. The Rays will likely be without closer Troy Percival, and will instead use Dan Wheeler for that role. Wheeler has had a solid year, but he gives the Rays a clear disadvantage against the Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. We saw Red Sox manager Terry Francona use Papelbon late in tie games against the Angels to shut them down for two innings. This gave Boston two innings to try to score while feeling comfortable that Papelbon would limit the damage. In front of Papelbon the Red Sox might use any combination of Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen and lefty Hideki Okajima, all of whom were effective against the Angels. Both team's have good bullpens, but Papelbon gives the Red Sox a slight advantage in the ninth inning and beyond.
While Boston seems to have the better, deeper lineup, the Rays lineup is hotter. With a healthy LF Carl Crawford, as they had in the ALDS, their lineup is at full strength for the first time in a long time. CF B.J. Upton is really swinging the bat well, and rookie 3B Evan Longoria is probably the best hitter on the team already. But the Rays true secret has been the success of the bottom of their batting order, where players such as C Dioner Navarro have been providing clutch hits. Some experts question the Rays inexperience, but in the division series they seemed to come up with more timely hitting than any other team. They should be nervous, but they appear to be relaxed and having fun. The Red Sox have a much more powerful lineup, but their best hitters (David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis) were relatively quiet against the Angels. Ortiz in particular needs to become more of a threat, but he seems to be feeling the effects of playing without Manny.
This series is really a difficult one to pick. All of my logic tells me the Red Sox are just too good, and they are the more battle-tested team. But I also find myself believing in the Rays. I think Tampa will win Game 1 at the Trop, because of all of Boston's starters, Daisuke Matsuzaka is the most vulnerable. Game 2 will be huge, because if the Rays can beat Beckett and head to Boston up two games they have a real shot. But I can't see the Rays sweeping, or even winning in five, and I just can't bet against both Beckett and Lester in potential Games 6 and 7. Boston, as they did against the Angels, will find ways to win. Red Sox in 7.

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I was astonished with how easily the Dodgers handled the Cubs in the NLDS. Everything seemed to work; they hit, they got very good starting pitching and their bullpen is proving how good it can be. Now they head to Philly to test themselves against another team whose pitching staff is red hot. While the Manny and Ryan Howard types will receive most of the attention, my interest will be directed at the likes of Hamels and Chad Billingsley.
In surprising a move, the Dodgers have just announced that closer Takashi Saito will be left off of their NLCS roster. Although this may seem like a major blow for L.A., it really might not mean that much to their chances. Even though Saito missed most of the second half of the season while on the disabled list, this does not seem to be a health related decision. Saito had one appearance in the NLDS against the Cubs in which he got roughed up, allowing two earned runs without recording an out. During Saito's stint on the DL, Jonathan Broxton filled in and faired very well. After Saito's rough outing, Torre decided to go with Broxton in the ninth inning for the remainder of the series. He responded well, pitching in all three games without allowing a single run. As previously mentioned, the Dodgers have a very deep bullpen which is full of power arms. With excellent lefty Hong-Chih Kuo healthy and ready to rejoin the team, Saito has found himself the odd man out. In fact, Kuo could be a huge difference maker for the Dodgers against Philly's big lefties, Howard and 2B Chase Utley. Kuo had an excellent year, striking out 96 in 80 innings pitched. The Dodgers led the NL in ERA and Torre will have plenty of arms to deploy out of the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen is not as deep as that of the Dodgers, but equally as strong at the back end. Closer Brad Lidge has not blown a save all season, playoffs included. Ryan Madson and lefty J.C. Romero form a solid bridge to Lidge. It would be fair to say that if either team has a lead going into the late innings, each would feel pretty comfortable with their options.
The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching largely thanks to the presence of Hamels. He was outstanding in Game 1 against the Brewers, and showed the rest of the baseball world that he is one of those pitchers that has the ability to elevate his game in a pressure-packed situation. He is clearly the best starter in the series, but I think a big key will be the pitching matchups. The Dodgers will throw out playoff veteran Derek Lowe in Game 1 against Hamels, who should keep things close. But in front of the home crowd, it would be hard to imagine the Phillies losing with Hamels on the mound. Game 2 is where the Dodgers can swing momentum in their favor. Dodger's Game 2 starter Billingsley looked excellent in his start against the Cubs, and is an emerging star. He, much like the rest of the Dodgers, has a power arm and possesses the ability pull out a strikeout in a tight situation. Even though Brett Myers pitched well for the Phillies against the Brewers, I think the Dodger offense is too hot and will score enough runs to go back to L.A. even at one game apiece. That spells trouble for the Phillies because L.A.'s Game 3 starter Hiroki Kuroda has a 1.38 ERA against them, while Philly's starter Jamie Moyer has a 4.80 against the Dodgers. Game 4 will be interesting to see how Torre decides to play his hand. His other two starters are rookie left-hander Clayton Kershaw and 80-year-old Greg Maddux (an exaggeration). Maddux has been ineffective since coming to the Dodgers from San Diego, while Kershaw has explosive potential. Against a lefty-powered lineup like the Phillies, Torre would be wise to start Kershaw, while keeping him on a short leash. Maddux would be better equipped to come in from the bullpen if Kershaw struggles, but at least with Kershaw you know there is the potential for a dominating outing.
Each team comes into the series red-hot, but no team in baseball is playing as well as the Dodgers. Manny has added a complete new element to their lineup, but more importantly has allowed the rest of the batting order to fall into place. He anchors the middle of the lineup while good hitters such as RF Andre Ethier and C Russell Martin can fit nicely into their spots as role players. The addition of 3B Casey Blake was vastly underrated, and he gives L.A. the best eighth hitter in the NL along with a solid veteran presence to guide the young players. The Phillies have more pop in the middle of their lineup with Howard and Utley, but I would argue the Dodgers are deeper. Throw in the return of SS Rafael Furcal, who is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, and the Dodgers seemed to have come together at the perfect time.
The Phillies would be wise to pitch around Manny, which I think they will do to an extent, but the problem is L.A. has so many other underrated hitters. I like Philly when Hamels starts, but other than that I think the Dodgers have the pitching advantage, especially in the bullpen. If the Phillies starters match what they did against Milwaukee they will be tough to beat, but just like the Colorado Rockies last year, the Dodgers seem to be the hottest team in the NL. And in the NL's recent history, that's the team that represents the league in the World Series. With Torre's presence I have to believe the Dodgers will stay the course. Dodgers in 6.