Some teams have already started to make moves via the trade market, with the most notable name on the move being All-Star leftfielder Matt Holliday going from the Colorado Rockies to the Oakland Athletics. Other All-Star caliber players could also be on the move, such as San Diego Padres All-Star starter Jake Peavy.
With so many players expected to be on the move, you can expect to see a lot of the larger market teams heavily involved. Especially those who missed out on the October action last season; two of the most notable teams being the crosstown rivals from New York who will both being opening up new stadiums come April.
The Yankees, in their first season under new manager Joe Girardi, missed the playoffs for the first time in 13 seasons. That alone would be enough to motivate the Yanks to go out and spend big in the offseason, but when you add the $80+ million due to come off the books things could get out of hand.
The Mets meanwhile missed the playoffs for the second consecutive year after holding the division lead for a good portion of the season. And to top things off, they had to sit back and watch as their biggest rivals caught fire and won themselves a championship.
Needless to say, neither team figures to stand pat going into next season and both should be extremely interesting to watch over the course of the next few months. Here's an idea of what each New York teams outlook is as we get ready for the offseason to kick off:
- New York Yankees
"We're going to do what we do every year, and that's try to field a championship team," he said. "If that means spending money, it obviously means spending money."
And spend they shall.
The Yankees top priority is clearly Milwaukee Brewers left-hander, C.C. Sabathia. GM Brian Cashman would surely salivate at the potential three-headed monster of Sabathia, Chien-Ming Wang and Joba Chamberlain at the top of his rotation. If all three remain healthy, they could be a lethal combination built for October.
What we know is that the Yanks will likely offer Sabathia more money than other team. What we don't know is how much interest the big, strong lefty has in playing in New York.
Rumors are that he would prefer to return home to California, possibly to one of the two L.A. teams (Angels or Dodgers). But numerous media outlets have reported that the Yankees have already made Sabathia an offer that would make him the highest paid pitcher in baseball, and would be willing to up the ante even more if need be.
If I were a betting man, I would think Sabathia will make like Steve Miller and, "take the money and run." But of course, nothing is certain, and until Sabathia make his decision the Yankees offseason plans will hang in the balance.
If he signs, their pitching staff is basically set. Girardi can slot in Sabathia, Wang, Chamberlain and Andy Pettitte (who is technically a free agent, but has decided to play another year and inevitably should return to the Bronx) nicely into his top four spots in the rotation. Ideally, the Yankees would love to have 20-game winner Mike Mussina occupy the fifth spot, which would make for a very deep rotation, but rumors are he is leaning toward retirement. He has said he will announce his decision next week. If Mussina retires, the Yanks could look to bring in second-tier starter to fill the final spot or go with the young Phil Hughes in the final spot.
My hunch is that they would prefer to have a veteran lined up for the fifth spot, that way Hughes can get consistent work in Triple A and be ready for a call-up baring an injury to a member of their staff. That would give him a chance to find his rhythm in a less-pressured environment and come up to the big club with less expectations.
If Sabathia doesn't sign, the next likeliest option for the Yankees would be A.J. Burnett from the Toronto Blue Jays. Burnett has dominate stuff and is coming off a Cy Young caliber year, but prior to this past season he has had a long history of stints on the DL. Cashman surely wants to avoid another Pavano situation. Peavy and Derek Lowe would also be those among consideration, but make no mistake, Sabathia is the clear first choice.
As for the bullpen, the Yanks have already resigned lefty specialist Damaso Marte to a three-year deal and will likely stand pat otherwise. They found some bright spots in the pen last season, and have an abundance of young arms that will compete for spots. Closer Mariano Rivera was as good as ever last year, and is still the surest thing in the Major Leagues in the ninth inning. After him, the Yanks will look to Marte, Jose Veras, Brian Bruney, Edwar Ramirez, David Robertson and lefty Phil Coke, who each show flashes during the '08 campaign. Coke is an especially interesting young arm who was very impressive after his September call up. He and Marte will give Girardi the ability to mix and match lefties and righties; a luxury he did not always have last season. Add in Dan Giese and Darrell Rasner as potential long men, plus top relieving prospect Mark Melancon, who is expected to eventually take over the set-up role, and you have the makings of a solid pen.
If Melancon proves he is ready for the big leagues, the Yankees have some flexibility in terms of trade options. With about seven roster spots expected to go to relievers, Cashman has some trade bait that he might decide to use for a young position player.
Speaking of trade bait, what are the Yanks expected to do in order to fill holes at first base and in centerfield? Some experts think the Yankees will make a major play for Teixiera, who seems to be a perfect fit. He plays Gold Glove defense, he's patient at the plate and he's a switch hitter with major run producing ability. But I think the Yankees pursuit of Teixiera will largely hinge on what happens with Sabathia. As aggressive as we expect Cashman to be, it would be two major commitments to take on if they were to sign both, who coincidentally are expected to receive the two largest contracts of any other free agents. And while I wouldn't be overly surprised if they did it, I think there will be other teams, such as the Angels, who are going to drive up Teixiera's price tag.
As a precaution, and possible message, the Yankees acquired Nick Swisher from the Chicago White Sox in a low risk trade earlier this week. Swisher can play both first base and centerfield, and as of right now would be their best option at either position. The problem is, Swisher is probably better served as your first player off of the bench than an everyday guy. His on-base percentage and power potential make him a good fit, but his .219 batting average last season does not. And while it was a down year for him, he has never hit over .262 in his career.
After Teixiera, the market becomes very thin at first base so it seems like the Yankees might have to look at possible trade options. They do have some pieces they might be willing to deal, especially some of their young arms. It is even believed that Cashman might be willing to consider dealing second baseman Robinson Cano after his production dropped last season. But no trade partner has emerged that seems realistic at this early stage.
The real key offensively for the Yankees will be getting guys like third baseman Alex Rodriguez back on track. A-Rod can and should be their main run producer, and if he's on his game guys like designated hitter Hideki Matsui, outfielder Xavier Nady and shortstop Derek Jeter should be able to fit nicely into their roles. Getting catcher Jorge Posada back on track after his surgery would be a huge lift as well. I would look for the Yankees to pursue a first baseman in a trade, and primarily use Swisher, Melky Cabrera or Brett Gardner in center. Top prospect Austin Jackson is expected to take over in center in 2010 anyway, and could be brought up sooner if he gets off to a hot start in the minors.
This team is clearly focusing on pitching, and with Sabathia could finally have the right combination for success in the playoffs. But in a division that is only getting tougher, Girardi is going to need stronger contributions offensively from some of the guys he has in-house if they want to get to the playoffs in the first place.
- New York Mets
A second straight collapse by the boys from Queens has left Mets fans fuming and wondering what needs to happen to shake the choker label. Although this most recent meltdown was not as severe as the historical collapse of '07, it has still made it clear that significant changes are coming.Surprisingly, the Mets have retained interm manager Jerry Manuel despite his failure to lead the team to the postseason. Manuel is well-liked by his players because of his laid back, honest approach, but he may need to find ways to restore a winning attitude in the clubhouse. A new face would likely have made that attitude adjustment more abrupt, but GM Omar Minaya obviously trusts Manuel.
Now that their managerial situation is settled, focus shifts to the players on the field. One of the biggest positives for the Mets in '08 was the performance of prized addition, Johan Santana. Santana did not always receive enough run support, but as the year went on, he clearly found his New York comfort zone. Down the stretch, he was the only sure thing the Mets had and showed the desire to be the workhorse Minaya had traded for.
Unfortunately for the Mets, Santana can only pitch once every five games and the rest of their rotation has major question marks.
Young starter Mike Pelfrey had a breakout year of sorts, even though not much was expected from him after he disappointed in previous seasons. Besides Santana, Pelfrey was the Mets most consistent pitcher, and he showed he can handle a heavy workload by throwing over 200 innings. Now, he is slotted in number two spot in the rotation behind Santana, as of this moment. The only other incumbent starter the Mets have coming back is John Maine, who digressed after a promising '07 campaign. Maine will likely keep his spot in the rotation, but the Mets will be actively pursuing starters to slot ahead of him.
The wild card for the Mets' rotation will be their left-handed free agent, Oliver Perez. While Perez did not equal his success from '07 when he won 15 games, he did show flashes of his impressive ability. He struck out 180 batters in 194 innings pitched, and Minaya would welcome him back. The issue will be how high his price tag becomes in an open market.
Minaya might prefer the likes of a Derek Lowe, who is older than Perez but more consistent and battle-tested. He might even opt to offer contracts to both, and really strengthen the Mets rotation significantly. But both will probably command well over ten million per year, and the Mets do have other holes to fill (especially in the bullpen).
The final spot in the rotation belonged to Pedro Martinez last season, but he is a free agent who is past his prime and considered all but gone. Unless they end up retaining Perez and signing someone like Lowe, they're going to have a fifth spot in the rotation to fill. The top in-house candidate would probably be lefty prospect Jonathon Niese, but the Mets will likely pursue a cheaper veteran alternative. A couple names to keep in mind are lefty Randy Wolf from the Houston Astros and the injury-prone Ben Sheets from the Milwaukee Brewers. Sheets could be an interesting option, because when he's healthy he is one of the best in the majors, but many teams seem hesitant to offer him big time money because of his fragile reputation.
While Minaya tries to sort of his starting rotation, he also knows that the biggest issue with his team last season was in the bullpen. The Mets need to find some competent arms, because last year was downright ugly at times. They have no closer with Billy Wagner likely to miss the entire season, and no secure bridge to get to the ninth inning.
The most logicial free agent for the Mets might seem to be Los Angeles Angels' free agent closer Francisco Rodriguez, who broke the all-time record for saves in a season in '08. But he will cost big time dollars, and the Mets know they need more than just a closer for their pen. If he is willing to take a three year deal, as opposed to the five years he is reportedly seeking, then maybe the Mets will make a play. But they'd probably be wiser to take that money and sign a couple pitchers instead of one.
As bad as their bullpen was, there is no way they can get rid of everyone from last season. They're going to have to figure out who they have that can improve, and who they need to replace. Lefties Pedro Feliciano and Scott Schoeneweis are both good bets to return, and the Mets have a group of righties (Duaner Sanchez, Aaron Heilman and Joe Smith) who will get long looks as well. Heilman has been mentioned as potential trade bait, but after last season I would question how much value he has to other teams.
Midseason pick up Luis Ayala is a free agent who will likely be let go in favor of a new face. If the Mets don't sign K-Rod, they do have a few other options in the market at closer. Kerry Wood from the Chicago Cubs and Brian Fuentes from the Colorado Rockies are two names that will surely get mentioned, but look for the Mets to also make a play for potential late innings guys like Brandon Lyon and Juan Cruz from the Arizona Diamondbacks. If they could sign Wood or Fuentes, along with someone like Cruz who has closer-type stuff, it would go a long way towards improving their bullpen. I would still not feel the confidence you desire from your bullpen if I were Manuel, but you have to figure things can't get any worse if you bring in some new guys.
With so much money expected to go into the rotation and bullpen, the Mets will probably look very similiar to the way they looked offensively last season. They have already picked up the option on first baseman Carlos Delgado, who came on very strong after struggling in the beginning of the year. Although there is the risk of Delgado once again hitting a wall, he was their best option given the market and their pitching needs. He can hold down the fort for one more year until the Mets' top draft pick from '08, first baseman Ike Davis, is ready for primetime.
Along with Delgado, the Mets' core of third baseman David Wright, shortstop Jose Reyes and centerfielder Carlos Beltran will remain the same. Each of those three will be counted on regain their form and lead this team offensively, as opposed to '08 when none of them could get on the same page. Wright, in particular, should be counted on to hit over .300 with 30+ homers and 100+ RBIs from his spot in the three-hole.
The two biggest question marks for the Mets on the diamond are at second base and in leftfield. They gave second baseman Luis Castillo a multi-year deal heading into last season, and are probably stuck with him, at least for the time being. They do have some options for how they want to handle their leftfield situation, though.
Ryan Church came on strong before his concussion issues, and should retain his spot in rightfield. The Mets also resigned Fernando Tatis after his impressive return to baseball last season, and if the season were to start today, he would probably be their starting leftfielder. They also have young prospect Daniel Murphy who figures into the mix as well. But there are some options in the free agent market that might come at a reasonable price.
Former Yankee Bobby Abreu is seeking a short term deal, and would probably fit the Mets price range. He could play right, and move Church over to left. Raul Ibanez from the Seattle Mariners is another strong option who would come much cheaper than the likes of Manny. While playing for a bad team, Ibanez has still managed over 100 RBIs in each of the past three seasons. And he, like Abreu, would not be looking for a major commitment in terms of years due to his age.
The Mets free agent wish list figures to be a long one. They will likely try to sign at least one key piece on offense, in the rotation and in the bullpen. Obviously, they are going to have to compete for these free agents and will probably not be able to get who they want at every position. But if Minaya can be smart and strategic with the free agents he does choose to pursue, especially in the bullpen, the Mets should compete for a playoff spot again.
They do not have much to work with in terms of trades, because their farm system took a big hit last year when they dealt for Santana. So they will be opening up the checkbook, and in certain situations might have to overpay. But this team does have talent; the key to their season will be overcoming the demons from their past more so than anything else.
