World Series Preview

If I would have told you at the beginning of the season that the Philadelphia Phillies would have been facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series, I surely would have receive a chuckle in return. At least. While we have had teams in recent years come out of nowhere and earn a spot in the Fall Classic (the Colorado Rockies last year, and the Detroit Tigers the year before that), prior to this season Tampa Bay was the epitome of losing in Major League Baseball. An expansion team who entered the league a decade ago in 1998, the Rays had never won more than 69 games in a season. And when they jumped out to an early lead in the AL East this season, it was assumed that it was inevitable before they came back down to earth. Even as they continued to play great throughout the summer, there was no way they could optain a playoff spot with both the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the same division as Tampa. But in fact, the Rays played the type of baseball all season long that allowed for them to beat out both of those teams and now has them sitting pretty in the World Series.
They win with pitching, speed and defense; not power hitters and overpaid pitchers like their divisional competitors. Mix in some of the most promising young players in baseball, such as Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza (this list could become very long, but I think those guys are enough to get my point across) and you've got the makings of a team that is capable of beating anyone. And that's exactly what they've done.
The Phillies, on the other hand, come from a place where they are expected to win, but usually don't. Even though they won the division last year, they were bounced quickly from the playoffs and most people (myself included) thought that the New York Mets would regain control of the NL East thanks to their offseason acquisition of All-World starting pitcher, Johan Santana. But the Phillies battled all season, and defended their NL East title with a repeat performance. In the playoffs, they have shown that they have the most formidable lineup in the NL, as well as the hottest pitcher in Cole Hamels.
While Red Sox-Dodgers would have been a sexier matchup, I think we may finally have two teams that can give us something to get excited about in the World Series. The past four have been duds. Three of the past four World Series' have been sweeps, with the other one lasting a lengthy five games. These two teams seem more evenly matched, and should (we hope) provide some compelling stuff on the field. Here's my attempt to breakdown the series, and hopefully I fare better than I did with my Championship Series predictions:

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The main reason I see this series going relatively deep is because neither team has any glaring weaknesses that the other can exploit. Both have strong lineups and starting pitching; both play good defense and can put pressure on another team on the basepaths; and both have at least a few relievers (both lefties and righties) that each manager can feel comfortable inserting into a tight situation. There are going to be subtle adjustments that each team is going to have to make though, due to their unfamilarity with each other. The young Rays have one player (Cliff Floyd) who will have experience against some of the Phillies pitchers, and he won't even play in every game. Most of the Rays talent is homegrown and lacking experience with any NL pitchers. But in many ways the same can be said for Philadelphia, who have no position player in their starting lineup with at-bats against the likes of Kazmir, Garza and James Shields. How quickly the big bats in each lineup can adapt will be crucial.
Another critical thing to watch, which seems to come up every year, is how the lay-off effects the Phillies. They've had a week of no baseball, while the Rays have had the opportunity to stay sharp. The Tigers were in a similar situation as the Phils in 2006, and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games as a result. In an article written by ESPN's Jayson Stark, Tigers coach Andy Van Slyke had this to say about the effects of the time off:
"There's a certain physical rhythm to the season and that's intensified in the postseason. And once you have that cut off, it's hard to get it back, physically and mentally. There's an extra adrenaline you get in the postseason that gives you such a high that, when you have those off days, you almost become too low."
Recent history suggests that in that regard, the Rays hold the advantage.
Tampa Bay also has the advantage of opening the series at home in Tropicana Field. The Trop is one of the toughest parks in baseball to adjust to when your team has not played there before. It's artificial turf highlights the Rays overall team speed, and causes defenses to have to react more quickly. The Phillies counter for begininng the series on the road will be the NLCS MVP, Hamels. Hamels hands down should be considered the best pitcher either team has up their respective sleeves, and has been lights out in his three postseason starts this year. More importantly, the Phillies have won each of the three games he has pitched. I would not expect him to lose his mojo now, and he should effectively negate the Rays speed by not allowing many men on-base. Hamels should allow the Phils to keep the score low in Game 1, and return home to Philadelphia with the series tied at 1-1, which would be a positive for the Charlie Manuel's club.
Where the Rays subtle advantage will come into play will be when the depth of their rotation is showcased. In Game 3 they will send ALCS MVP Garza out to the mound, and he was overpowering against a very good Boston lineup. He went 2-0 against the defending champs with a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings pitched. But even those numbers do not do justice to Garza's performance in Game 7, when he allowed only two hits over seven plus innings. The Red Sox had all of the momentum after coming back from being down 3-1 in the series to force a Game 7, but were completely overwhelmed by Garza. He will be up against 45-year-old starter Jamie Moyer, who has been knocked around in each game he has pitched this postseason. In two games started, Moyer has a 13.50 ERA and has only been able to get through five and a third innings. Manuel has to feel a bit uneasy about that matchup.
Game 4 will be a bit more even for the Phillies when they send Joe Blanton to the mound to face Andy Sonnanstine. This will be a crucial game for Philly because of all of the Rays' starters, Sonnanstine is the most vulnerable. Still, that is not saying much because Sonnanstine has given Tampa Bay all they could ask from a fourth starter so far this postseason. He has posted a 3.46 ERA and earned a win in each of his two starts. By my calculations, that could potentially set up the Phillies to go down 3-1 and be forced to dig themselves out of a hole. But of course, the Phillies' lineup will have a say in this, and if they get the right players hot, could seize the series.
The Phils do have the advantage of possessing the more intimidating hitters. No one in the Rays' lineup can match the power production of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (although Longoria is fast-approaching that territory). If one, or better yet, both of those guys gets hot, Tampa Bay will be in trouble. Both are streaky hitters, but both are among the most dangerous in baseball when locked in. Neither has been overwhelming so far in this year's playoffs, but the depth of Philly's offense has kept them scoring enough to give their starters leads. In particular, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will play prominent roles.
An interesting story to watch will be what Manuel does with his designated hitter spot for the games in Tampa. He has refused to announce his plans, but one would speculate he will use a righty in Game 1 against the Ray's lefty, Kazmir. His two best bats off the bench are Greg Dobbs and veteran Matt Stairs, but both of them hit from the left side of the plate. I see two other options for Manuel; those being Chris Coste or Eric Bruntlett. If Manuel wants to improve his defense, he'll probably use Bruntlett in leftfield and start Pat Burrell at DH. But I suspect with the way Kazmir pitched in his last outing against Boston that Manuel will want to favor offense, with Coste being his best righty off the bench. In Game 2 against Shields, he would be wise to use Matt Stairs because he has 11 career at-bats against him, including a home run.
Meanwhile, Joe Maddon will likely alternate between Floyd and ALCS hero Willy Aybar at DH for the Rays. Either one fits in nicely in the six hole, behind five hitters who have been great this postseason. I think Maddon has a tougher decision to make in rightfield, where he has used Gabe Gross for most of the playoffs. Gross is solid defensively, but hasn't given Tampa Bay much with his bat. Rocco Baldelli, on the other hand, has provided the Rays with clutch hits in his limited action and should play most of the games in right. The most impressive hitter for Tampa Bay has been Upton, who leads all players in the playoffs with seven home runs. Along with Upton, players like Longoria, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena have been huge for the Rays. One could easily argue that although the Phillies have their Big 3 (Howard, Utley and Rollins), the Rays lineup has been hotter.
Both lineups will have to overcome good pitching, and the best way to do that will be by applying pressure with steal attempts, hit-and-run plays and sacrifice bunts. Of the two teams, the Rays are better suited to play that style. Upton and Crawford are nearly automatic with they get on first to steal second, and Tampa has plenty of others who are capable as well. What gets the Phillies into trouble sometimes is their reliance on the home run. If they hit them frequently, they're chances are very good. If not, they may struggle to score.
Ultimately, which team wins will have to get solid pitching from their bullpen. As is typical at this time of year, each manager will probably only use about four or five arms out of their bullpen, unless a game goes into extra innings. The Phillies have the clear advantage at closer with Brad Lidge, who has yet to blow a save this season. The Rays meanwhile will usually use Dan Wheeler, who is effective, but not your typical power ninth inning guy. Maddon surprisingly used rookie phenom David Price for the save in Game 7 against the Red Sox, and he proved that he deserves serious consideration for that type of role against Philadelphia. No one on the Phillies has ever seen Price, and with his 98 mile-per-hour fastball and nasty slider, he could be a weapon used to pitch multiple innings late in games. With Price and fellow lefty J.P. Howell, the Rays have reliable arms to matchup against Philly's lefty power hitters, Utley and Howard. The fact that the two of them bat back-to-back could make Maddon's job easier. For Manuel and the Phillies, they will rely mostly on Ryan Madson and lefty J.C. Romero for tough outs leading to Lidge, and the two of them have been very good over the past few months. Both teams have formiable weapons in their 'pens.
All in all, I could see this series going either way. With Hamels doing his thing, if the Phillies big bats can get hot the Rays storybook season will come to an end. But I can't help but think the Rays have too much going for them right now. If they can fend off a rally to force a Game 7 from the defending champs, I think they are mentally tough enough to handle anything. I also think the lay-off for the Phillies could hurt them, as it has for other teams in recent history. I think this series is bound to go back to Tampa for potential Games 6 and 7, and I don't see the Phillies beating Shields and Garza in back-to-back games on the road. I picked against the Rays in the ALCS, and I won't make the same mistake twice. Rays in 7.

Tragic Death of Rangers Prospect Deserves Further Examination

The New York Rangers have gotten off to a blazing-hot start in this year's young NHL season. Despite major roster alterations, these new Rangers seem to be meshing quickly and outworking their opponents. But due to tragic events in Russia earlier this week, the positive attention the Blueshirts have been receiving has suddenly taken a backseat.
In a surreal moment for the organization, top prospect and former first round draft pick, Alexei Cherepanov, collasped and died on the bench during a game for the Avangard Omsk. Cherepanov was only 19 years old.
Avangard is a team in Russia's Continental Hockey League; the league which gained recognition this offseason by luring NHL players, most notably former Ranger Jaromir Jagr, to come overseas and play. With it's deep pocketed owners, the KHL (I know it seems like it should be CHL, but this is how it's supposed to be abbreviated) has been considered a league on the rise, but this terribly tragic event has put that reputation in jeopardy. And for good reason.
"There are elements of negligence here," said Pavel Krasheninnikov, who sits on the Russian Hockey Federation's supervisory council.
Indeed there are, Mr. Krasheninnikov. An investigation is currently under way, so more information will surely surface, but there are some serious issues to be taken up with the league based on what we already know.
It has been determined that Cherepanov had chronic ischemia, which is a condition that occurs when not enough blood gets to the heart and other major organs. Prior to his death, the KHL was unaware of this condition despite regular heart and blood tests issued by the league. It seems odd that this could slip by going unnoticed, but even if we assume this is the case, it seems clear that the league was not prepared to deal with this type of incident.
After completing a shift with Jagr (they played on the same team and same line), Cherepanov was seated next to the former Ranger captain when he suddenly fell back and turned white. He was carried into the locker room, where there was no defibrillator present. A defibrillator is a medical machine used to shock the heart, and should be in place at all sporting events. To make matters worse, according to Krasheninnikov, there was no ambulance on duty at the arena and as a result there was a delay getting Cherepanov to a hospital.
Osmk coach Wayne Fleming was asked about how adequate the medical attention for his promising young player, but he said he was asked by the team not to comment. According to Cherepanov's agent, Jay Grossman, "[Jagr] went with him into the dressing room area and they revived him for some time and then he didn't make it."
What could the KHL expect to happen if a serious injury occurred on the ice, yet there was no ambulance to ensure the quickest and most effective medical treatment? Or if a player had a heart condition, yet there was no defibrillator on-site? Perhaps, Cherepanov's young life was one that was capable of being saved. At the very least, on the surface there seems to be many questions that should be directed at the KHL and their emergency response methods.
In the NHL, each team is responsible to comply with emergency medical procedures. Among the requirements are that medical staff on hand must be certified in advanced trauma life support, as well as have an ambulance service on-site.
If the KHL expects to continue to lure big name players from the NHL, they should seriously consider a similiar policy and not avoid the issue. This tragic news will surely not sit well with players across the world.
"This is a blow for the KHL," said Igor Larionov, who is a former Russian hockey star and is on the KHL's board of directors. "We must learn from this. This cannot happen ever again."
The fact is, it already happened one time too many.

Championship Series Predictions

An exciting round of division series has dwindled the field of remaining teams vying for a world championship down to four. The storylines for these final four teams run deep, but the most inspiring has to be that of the worst-to-first Tampa Bay Rays. The Rays handled the Chicago White Sox relatively easily and appeared to clearly be the better team. The question for the Rays is no longer how long can they keep up this pace, but how good can they really be? Their defense is second to none, and with a very good pitching staff to go along with a promising and athletic lineup, this team has to be considered a legitimate threat to the Boston Red Sox in the ALCS. The Red Sox squeaked out a series against the Los Angeles Angels which was much closer than it might appear on the surface. The Angels had ample opportunities to take control of the series, but kept tripping over their own feet. Their famed failed suicide squeeze attempt in the ninth inning of Game 4 will live in infamy for years to come. On the other hand, the Red Sox biggest asset is that they are a playoff-tested team that does not create any self-inflicted wounds. That, and the emergence of Jon Lester, who has been doing his best Josh Beckett impersonation.
In the National League the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the hottest team in baseball. They dismantled the Chicago Cubs, who were expected to be the darlings of this year's playoff season. While the Cubs' pitching fell short of the standards they had set over the course of the regular season, the Dodgers' pitching staff appears to be hitting their stride. Their bullpen is vastly underrated and their manager Joe Torre has been pushing all the right buttons. Oh, and Manny Ramirez hit .500 in the division series. Their NLCS opponents are the Philadelphia Phillies, who are playing with the weight of a city who has not seen a championship in any professional sport in a quarter of a century on their shoulders. The Fightin' Phils got excellent starting pitching in their division series against the Milwaukee Brewers, who seemed happy to simply be in the postseason. Cole Hamels is basking in the national spotlight and will be a key against the Dodgers, who do not have a starting pitcher to match him when he's on his game.
Now that we are done with the short five game series of the opening round, these teams will surely find that winning four is much tougher than winning three. We are now guaranteed to see a team in the World Series that has not been in well over a decade, at least. Tampa had never even seen a playoff series before last week. The Red Sox have to be viewed as the favorites, because they are the only team that has proven anything in the past, as defending champs. But the Rays have been defying the odds all year, and might be too naive to let the experience of Boston effect them. Don't expect to see a sweep in either series, and be prepared for some surprises. Here's my brusque attempt to breakdown how I think each might play out:

• Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays-

These two teams played each other tough all year, and for those that remember, were involved in a bench clearing brawl back on June 5th. The Rays won the season series, 10-8, but the home teams dominated. I expect that trend to remain the same in this series. The Rays had the best home record in baseball this year, largely due to the fact that the turf at Tropicana Field allows the Rays to showcase their team speed. For the Red Sox, Fenway Park has always been one of the toughest places in baseball to play, especially in the playoffs. But this series will ultimately come down to pitching. While the Rays bullpen was great against the White Sox, none of their starters really stepped up as the team's clear ace. For the Red Sox, that distinction belonged to Lester. He was dominate against a very good Angels lineup and did not allow an earned run in 14 innings pitched. His velocity seemed to increase as the game went on, and he was deadly on lefties. If Lester continues to rise to the occasion, the Rays will have a difficult time winning when he starts. With him lined up for Games 3 and 7, Tampa would be in trouble if the series goes the distance. The key though for Boston will be Beckett. He is one of the most dominating postseason pitchers in the league (if not the most dominating), but did not appear to be himself when he allowed four earned runs in only five innings pitched in Game 3 against the Angels. He is clearly not 100 percent, but still possesses the ability to alter a series in favor of Boston. If he regains his form, consider the Red Sox the American League Champions. For Tampa, it will be crucial for a starter to step up and match Boston's big guns. Their first three starters, James Shields, Scott Kazmir and Matt Garza, all have the potential to do so, but must find a way to elevate their games. Kazmir will be a particularly interesting player to watch, because he is matched up with Beckett in Games 2 and 6. Kazmir has nasty stuff, and talent-wise is probably the Rays best pitcher. But he got lit up in his last outing against Boston, when he surrendered nine earned runs in three innings pitched on September 15th.
The really surprising aspect of the Rays all year has been their bullpen. Last year it was horrendous, but they have made a drastic turnaround. They are deep, and led by lefty J.P. Howell, who has proven he can get guys out on both sides of the plate, and flame-thrower Grant Balfour. The Rays will likely be without closer Troy Percival, and will instead use Dan Wheeler for that role. Wheeler has had a solid year, but he gives the Rays a clear disadvantage against the Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon. We saw Red Sox manager Terry Francona use Papelbon late in tie games against the Angels to shut them down for two innings. This gave Boston two innings to try to score while feeling comfortable that Papelbon would limit the damage. In front of Papelbon the Red Sox might use any combination of Justin Masterson, Manny Delcarmen and lefty Hideki Okajima, all of whom were effective against the Angels. Both team's have good bullpens, but Papelbon gives the Red Sox a slight advantage in the ninth inning and beyond.
While Boston seems to have the better, deeper lineup, the Rays lineup is hotter. With a healthy LF Carl Crawford, as they had in the ALDS, their lineup is at full strength for the first time in a long time. CF B.J. Upton is really swinging the bat well, and rookie 3B Evan Longoria is probably the best hitter on the team already. But the Rays true secret has been the success of the bottom of their batting order, where players such as C Dioner Navarro have been providing clutch hits. Some experts question the Rays inexperience, but in the division series they seemed to come up with more timely hitting than any other team. They should be nervous, but they appear to be relaxed and having fun. The Red Sox have a much more powerful lineup, but their best hitters (David Ortiz, Dustin Pedroia and Kevin Youkilis) were relatively quiet against the Angels. Ortiz in particular needs to become more of a threat, but he seems to be feeling the effects of playing without Manny.
This series is really a difficult one to pick. All of my logic tells me the Red Sox are just too good, and they are the more battle-tested team. But I also find myself believing in the Rays. I think Tampa will win Game 1 at the Trop, because of all of Boston's starters, Daisuke Matsuzaka is the most vulnerable. Game 2 will be huge, because if the Rays can beat Beckett and head to Boston up two games they have a real shot. But I can't see the Rays sweeping, or even winning in five, and I just can't bet against both Beckett and Lester in potential Games 6 and 7. Boston, as they did against the Angels, will find ways to win. Red Sox in 7.

• Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Philadelphia Phillies

I was astonished with how easily the Dodgers handled the Cubs in the NLDS. Everything seemed to work; they hit, they got very good starting pitching and their bullpen is proving how good it can be. Now they head to Philly to test themselves against another team whose pitching staff is red hot. While the Manny and Ryan Howard types will receive most of the attention, my interest will be directed at the likes of Hamels and Chad Billingsley.
In surprising a move, the Dodgers have just announced that closer Takashi Saito will be left off of their NLCS roster. Although this may seem like a major blow for L.A., it really might not mean that much to their chances. Even though Saito missed most of the second half of the season while on the disabled list, this does not seem to be a health related decision. Saito had one appearance in the NLDS against the Cubs in which he got roughed up, allowing two earned runs without recording an out. During Saito's stint on the DL, Jonathan Broxton filled in and faired very well. After Saito's rough outing, Torre decided to go with Broxton in the ninth inning for the remainder of the series. He responded well, pitching in all three games without allowing a single run. As previously mentioned, the Dodgers have a very deep bullpen which is full of power arms. With excellent lefty Hong-Chih Kuo healthy and ready to rejoin the team, Saito has found himself the odd man out. In fact, Kuo could be a huge difference maker for the Dodgers against Philly's big lefties, Howard and 2B Chase Utley. Kuo had an excellent year, striking out 96 in 80 innings pitched. The Dodgers led the NL in ERA and Torre will have plenty of arms to deploy out of the bullpen. The Phillies bullpen is not as deep as that of the Dodgers, but equally as strong at the back end. Closer Brad Lidge has not blown a save all season, playoffs included. Ryan Madson and lefty J.C. Romero form a solid bridge to Lidge. It would be fair to say that if either team has a lead going into the late innings, each would feel pretty comfortable with their options.
The Phillies have the edge in starting pitching largely thanks to the presence of Hamels. He was outstanding in Game 1 against the Brewers, and showed the rest of the baseball world that he is one of those pitchers that has the ability to elevate his game in a pressure-packed situation. He is clearly the best starter in the series, but I think a big key will be the pitching matchups. The Dodgers will throw out playoff veteran Derek Lowe in Game 1 against Hamels, who should keep things close. But in front of the home crowd, it would be hard to imagine the Phillies losing with Hamels on the mound. Game 2 is where the Dodgers can swing momentum in their favor. Dodger's Game 2 starter Billingsley looked excellent in his start against the Cubs, and is an emerging star. He, much like the rest of the Dodgers, has a power arm and possesses the ability pull out a strikeout in a tight situation. Even though Brett Myers pitched well for the Phillies against the Brewers, I think the Dodger offense is too hot and will score enough runs to go back to L.A. even at one game apiece. That spells trouble for the Phillies because L.A.'s Game 3 starter Hiroki Kuroda has a 1.38 ERA against them, while Philly's starter Jamie Moyer has a 4.80 against the Dodgers. Game 4 will be interesting to see how Torre decides to play his hand. His other two starters are rookie left-hander Clayton Kershaw and 80-year-old Greg Maddux (an exaggeration). Maddux has been ineffective since coming to the Dodgers from San Diego, while Kershaw has explosive potential. Against a lefty-powered lineup like the Phillies, Torre would be wise to start Kershaw, while keeping him on a short leash. Maddux would be better equipped to come in from the bullpen if Kershaw struggles, but at least with Kershaw you know there is the potential for a dominating outing.
Each team comes into the series red-hot, but no team in baseball is playing as well as the Dodgers. Manny has added a complete new element to their lineup, but more importantly has allowed the rest of the batting order to fall into place. He anchors the middle of the lineup while good hitters such as RF Andre Ethier and C Russell Martin can fit nicely into their spots as role players. The addition of 3B Casey Blake was vastly underrated, and he gives L.A. the best eighth hitter in the NL along with a solid veteran presence to guide the young players. The Phillies have more pop in the middle of their lineup with Howard and Utley, but I would argue the Dodgers are deeper. Throw in the return of SS Rafael Furcal, who is one of the best leadoff hitters in the game, and the Dodgers seemed to have come together at the perfect time.
The Phillies would be wise to pitch around Manny, which I think they will do to an extent, but the problem is L.A. has so many other underrated hitters. I like Philly when Hamels starts, but other than that I think the Dodgers have the pitching advantage, especially in the bullpen. If the Phillies starters match what they did against Milwaukee they will be tough to beat, but just like the Colorado Rockies last year, the Dodgers seem to be the hottest team in the NL. And in the NL's recent history, that's the team that represents the league in the World Series. With Torre's presence I have to believe the Dodgers will stay the course. Dodgers in 6.