World Series Preview

If I would have told you at the beginning of the season that the Philadelphia Phillies would have been facing off against the Tampa Bay Rays in the World Series, I surely would have receive a chuckle in return. At least. While we have had teams in recent years come out of nowhere and earn a spot in the Fall Classic (the Colorado Rockies last year, and the Detroit Tigers the year before that), prior to this season Tampa Bay was the epitome of losing in Major League Baseball. An expansion team who entered the league a decade ago in 1998, the Rays had never won more than 69 games in a season. And when they jumped out to an early lead in the AL East this season, it was assumed that it was inevitable before they came back down to earth. Even as they continued to play great throughout the summer, there was no way they could optain a playoff spot with both the Boston Red Sox and New York Yankees in the same division as Tampa. But in fact, the Rays played the type of baseball all season long that allowed for them to beat out both of those teams and now has them sitting pretty in the World Series.
They win with pitching, speed and defense; not power hitters and overpaid pitchers like their divisional competitors. Mix in some of the most promising young players in baseball, such as Evan Longoria, B.J. Upton, Scott Kazmir, and Matt Garza (this list could become very long, but I think those guys are enough to get my point across) and you've got the makings of a team that is capable of beating anyone. And that's exactly what they've done.
The Phillies, on the other hand, come from a place where they are expected to win, but usually don't. Even though they won the division last year, they were bounced quickly from the playoffs and most people (myself included) thought that the New York Mets would regain control of the NL East thanks to their offseason acquisition of All-World starting pitcher, Johan Santana. But the Phillies battled all season, and defended their NL East title with a repeat performance. In the playoffs, they have shown that they have the most formidable lineup in the NL, as well as the hottest pitcher in Cole Hamels.
While Red Sox-Dodgers would have been a sexier matchup, I think we may finally have two teams that can give us something to get excited about in the World Series. The past four have been duds. Three of the past four World Series' have been sweeps, with the other one lasting a lengthy five games. These two teams seem more evenly matched, and should (we hope) provide some compelling stuff on the field. Here's my attempt to breakdown the series, and hopefully I fare better than I did with my Championship Series predictions:

• Philadelphia Phillies vs. Tampa Bay Rays

The main reason I see this series going relatively deep is because neither team has any glaring weaknesses that the other can exploit. Both have strong lineups and starting pitching; both play good defense and can put pressure on another team on the basepaths; and both have at least a few relievers (both lefties and righties) that each manager can feel comfortable inserting into a tight situation. There are going to be subtle adjustments that each team is going to have to make though, due to their unfamilarity with each other. The young Rays have one player (Cliff Floyd) who will have experience against some of the Phillies pitchers, and he won't even play in every game. Most of the Rays talent is homegrown and lacking experience with any NL pitchers. But in many ways the same can be said for Philadelphia, who have no position player in their starting lineup with at-bats against the likes of Kazmir, Garza and James Shields. How quickly the big bats in each lineup can adapt will be crucial.
Another critical thing to watch, which seems to come up every year, is how the lay-off effects the Phillies. They've had a week of no baseball, while the Rays have had the opportunity to stay sharp. The Tigers were in a similar situation as the Phils in 2006, and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in five games as a result. In an article written by ESPN's Jayson Stark, Tigers coach Andy Van Slyke had this to say about the effects of the time off:
"There's a certain physical rhythm to the season and that's intensified in the postseason. And once you have that cut off, it's hard to get it back, physically and mentally. There's an extra adrenaline you get in the postseason that gives you such a high that, when you have those off days, you almost become too low."
Recent history suggests that in that regard, the Rays hold the advantage.
Tampa Bay also has the advantage of opening the series at home in Tropicana Field. The Trop is one of the toughest parks in baseball to adjust to when your team has not played there before. It's artificial turf highlights the Rays overall team speed, and causes defenses to have to react more quickly. The Phillies counter for begininng the series on the road will be the NLCS MVP, Hamels. Hamels hands down should be considered the best pitcher either team has up their respective sleeves, and has been lights out in his three postseason starts this year. More importantly, the Phillies have won each of the three games he has pitched. I would not expect him to lose his mojo now, and he should effectively negate the Rays speed by not allowing many men on-base. Hamels should allow the Phils to keep the score low in Game 1, and return home to Philadelphia with the series tied at 1-1, which would be a positive for the Charlie Manuel's club.
Where the Rays subtle advantage will come into play will be when the depth of their rotation is showcased. In Game 3 they will send ALCS MVP Garza out to the mound, and he was overpowering against a very good Boston lineup. He went 2-0 against the defending champs with a 1.38 ERA in 13 innings pitched. But even those numbers do not do justice to Garza's performance in Game 7, when he allowed only two hits over seven plus innings. The Red Sox had all of the momentum after coming back from being down 3-1 in the series to force a Game 7, but were completely overwhelmed by Garza. He will be up against 45-year-old starter Jamie Moyer, who has been knocked around in each game he has pitched this postseason. In two games started, Moyer has a 13.50 ERA and has only been able to get through five and a third innings. Manuel has to feel a bit uneasy about that matchup.
Game 4 will be a bit more even for the Phillies when they send Joe Blanton to the mound to face Andy Sonnanstine. This will be a crucial game for Philly because of all of the Rays' starters, Sonnanstine is the most vulnerable. Still, that is not saying much because Sonnanstine has given Tampa Bay all they could ask from a fourth starter so far this postseason. He has posted a 3.46 ERA and earned a win in each of his two starts. By my calculations, that could potentially set up the Phillies to go down 3-1 and be forced to dig themselves out of a hole. But of course, the Phillies' lineup will have a say in this, and if they get the right players hot, could seize the series.
The Phils do have the advantage of possessing the more intimidating hitters. No one in the Rays' lineup can match the power production of Ryan Howard and Chase Utley (although Longoria is fast-approaching that territory). If one, or better yet, both of those guys gets hot, Tampa Bay will be in trouble. Both are streaky hitters, but both are among the most dangerous in baseball when locked in. Neither has been overwhelming so far in this year's playoffs, but the depth of Philly's offense has kept them scoring enough to give their starters leads. In particular, Jimmy Rollins and Shane Victorino will play prominent roles.
An interesting story to watch will be what Manuel does with his designated hitter spot for the games in Tampa. He has refused to announce his plans, but one would speculate he will use a righty in Game 1 against the Ray's lefty, Kazmir. His two best bats off the bench are Greg Dobbs and veteran Matt Stairs, but both of them hit from the left side of the plate. I see two other options for Manuel; those being Chris Coste or Eric Bruntlett. If Manuel wants to improve his defense, he'll probably use Bruntlett in leftfield and start Pat Burrell at DH. But I suspect with the way Kazmir pitched in his last outing against Boston that Manuel will want to favor offense, with Coste being his best righty off the bench. In Game 2 against Shields, he would be wise to use Matt Stairs because he has 11 career at-bats against him, including a home run.
Meanwhile, Joe Maddon will likely alternate between Floyd and ALCS hero Willy Aybar at DH for the Rays. Either one fits in nicely in the six hole, behind five hitters who have been great this postseason. I think Maddon has a tougher decision to make in rightfield, where he has used Gabe Gross for most of the playoffs. Gross is solid defensively, but hasn't given Tampa Bay much with his bat. Rocco Baldelli, on the other hand, has provided the Rays with clutch hits in his limited action and should play most of the games in right. The most impressive hitter for Tampa Bay has been Upton, who leads all players in the playoffs with seven home runs. Along with Upton, players like Longoria, Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena have been huge for the Rays. One could easily argue that although the Phillies have their Big 3 (Howard, Utley and Rollins), the Rays lineup has been hotter.
Both lineups will have to overcome good pitching, and the best way to do that will be by applying pressure with steal attempts, hit-and-run plays and sacrifice bunts. Of the two teams, the Rays are better suited to play that style. Upton and Crawford are nearly automatic with they get on first to steal second, and Tampa has plenty of others who are capable as well. What gets the Phillies into trouble sometimes is their reliance on the home run. If they hit them frequently, they're chances are very good. If not, they may struggle to score.
Ultimately, which team wins will have to get solid pitching from their bullpen. As is typical at this time of year, each manager will probably only use about four or five arms out of their bullpen, unless a game goes into extra innings. The Phillies have the clear advantage at closer with Brad Lidge, who has yet to blow a save this season. The Rays meanwhile will usually use Dan Wheeler, who is effective, but not your typical power ninth inning guy. Maddon surprisingly used rookie phenom David Price for the save in Game 7 against the Red Sox, and he proved that he deserves serious consideration for that type of role against Philadelphia. No one on the Phillies has ever seen Price, and with his 98 mile-per-hour fastball and nasty slider, he could be a weapon used to pitch multiple innings late in games. With Price and fellow lefty J.P. Howell, the Rays have reliable arms to matchup against Philly's lefty power hitters, Utley and Howard. The fact that the two of them bat back-to-back could make Maddon's job easier. For Manuel and the Phillies, they will rely mostly on Ryan Madson and lefty J.C. Romero for tough outs leading to Lidge, and the two of them have been very good over the past few months. Both teams have formiable weapons in their 'pens.
All in all, I could see this series going either way. With Hamels doing his thing, if the Phillies big bats can get hot the Rays storybook season will come to an end. But I can't help but think the Rays have too much going for them right now. If they can fend off a rally to force a Game 7 from the defending champs, I think they are mentally tough enough to handle anything. I also think the lay-off for the Phillies could hurt them, as it has for other teams in recent history. I think this series is bound to go back to Tampa for potential Games 6 and 7, and I don't see the Phillies beating Shields and Garza in back-to-back games on the road. I picked against the Rays in the ALCS, and I won't make the same mistake twice. Rays in 7.